So the 4 fastest on Saturday qualify..........no matter what
uh or do they??
Yes, the four quickest on Saturday fill the 13 - 16th spots.
Look at it this way: After Friday is concluded (regardless of sessions completed, I've learned) we will have 12 provisional qualifiers. All other times from Friday will be thrown out since they wouldn't put you in the show.
After Saturday is concluded, the other four spots are filled from that day's quickest performers not already in the 1-12 spots.
But any position from 1 -12 can be gained in any of the sessions assuming that a Saturday run is quicker than someone's Friday run holding one of those spots.
Good weather scenario: with good weather throughout the weekend, performances are great every session and we'll see bumping all four sessions just like we did in previous years.
Bad weather scenario: The Friday night session is killer but it's hot and humid all day Saturday. The quickest 12 from Friday start Saturday in their provisional spots. Greg/Jeg/Dave missed badly on Friday but manages to run quick enough in the heat on Saturday to jump into the 10th positition. The 12th spot is bumped out and the previous 11th place moves to 12th.
As is often the case, no one else is able to improve. The four next quickest cars on Saturday who are not already in the 1-12th spots move in the 13th to 16th spots.
With the ladder set up the way it is, this may put a huge premium on qualifying 1-4 at the end of Saturday.
(edited for further thoughts)
Then again, the best position to end up in may be 5th. You wouldn't have to meet a team with strong momentum which had figured out a hot day / track better than anyone else. You'd meet someone who had a good cool weather / track tuneup but may have not figured out the hot weather / track yet.