Hey gang....been a long time since I was last on here but being that I live here in the Indianapolis Metro Area and the fact that I'm also a long time weather hobbyist I thought I'd share with those here who plan to attend the race this weekend, my unofficial forecast based on a combination of public information and a fairly good understanding of reading models and trends.
That being said, the chances of rain/storms exist each day with Saturday and Monday being the two days most in danger of wiping out sessions. Friday night there will be scattered storms firing late in the afternoon/early evening and it'll be the luck of the draw as to whether or not rain falls at the track. I'd give it at 40% chance of precip.
Saturday gets worse as the day goes on and we may be lucky to get one session in. The later in the day the higher chances of precip there are as a shortwave moves along a nearly stalled out boundary. I'd say Saturday starts with a 40% chance and goes up to 70% by afternoon/evening. Rain will be much more widespread on Saturday too, especially as the day progresses.
Sunday may be a late start due to track drying but the shortwave from Saturday looks as if it will push the front South to the Ohio River overnight leaving Sunday with the best chance of a prolonged dry period.
Monday there is an increasing potential for some strong to severe weather as a weak cold front approaches from the West. Timing will be everything this day and as of right now I'd give it a 50/50 chance that we complete eliminations on Monday let alone start them.
Let's hope for the best!
EDIT: Should also note that the PWAT (Precipitable Water in the atmosphere) values are very high here (up to 2+ inches) over the next few days. With values that high, rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches (or higher) per hour from storms would not be a surprise.
