vegasnitro
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- Jul 10, 2006
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It's Back!!!!
From the guy who told you not to bet on Barbaro in 2006 ....
From the guy who told you not to bet on Street Sense in 2007 ....
From the guy who told you not to bet on Big Brown or Eight Belles in 2008 ....
It's the Kentucky Derby Handicapping Guide by Chris for 2009!!!
First of all, don't believe the hype about this year's field. There has been such a staggering amount of talented defections from the Derby trail due to injury, that this will be the first Derby in many, many years that will not include the winner of any of the major grade 1 stakes races for 2 year olds. Churchill Downs oddsmakers have installed 35% of the starters (7 out of 20) in the race as the longshot on the morning line at 50-1. The Derby scribes are using politically correct buzzwords like "competitive field" and "wide open race" ... I vehemently disagree. Amongst the top 4 or 5 horses it is competitive ... then there is a HUGE dropoff.
We will start with the most popular segment of this email, the horse you should not bet on no matter what. If I hold true to my recent Derby form, this is the horse you should run right to the window to bet on come Saturday. This year the horse is Pioneerof the Nile. The horse has beaten everybody in California, won more money than any other horse in the race and is coming in on a 4 stakes winning streak. What's not to like? Well, there are 2 things that throw up BIG red flags to me about this horse. The first is that he has never run on a conventional dirt surface, he has only run on the artificial surfaces of SoCal. The Derby is run on dirt. Secondly, his career best Beyer Speed Figure is 96. There hasn't been a Derby winner who hasn't carded at least one 100+ Beyer Speed Figure before the Derby since the figure was invented about 20 years ago. Colonel John was an undefeated artificial surface hero last year, and was nowhere on Derby Day ... expect the same from Pioneerof the Nile.
There are 2 more horses you shouldn't bet on no matter what, and they are the UAE shippers Desert Party and Regal Ransom. Horses shipped in from Dubai have never done well in the Derby, and no one expects either of these 2 to break that trend.
Now on to my picks ... this Derby is going to be weird. I have been studying the Form like scholars study the Dead Sea Scrolls and there is a glaring absence of pace in this race. Usually, a 7 furlong speedball gets the pace going early in the Derby. Not this year. In fact, it isn't obvious who will go to the lead. Every horse in the race is a route horse who likes to sit off the pace and close. All 20 horses can't run the same race, so my gut tells me that one of those 50-1 longshots is going to the front and try to steal it on the lead, the problem is none of them have enough talent to do it, they should be out of it by the quarter pole. So what horse should you look for? You should look for a horse that has big speed figures, has won races on dirt, has overcome traffic problems and doesn't mind getting dirt in his face early in the race. That horse is I Want Revenge. I know he is the morning line favorite at 3-1, so I am not exactly stepping out on a limb here, but I would still be on this horse even if some of the talented defectors showed up for the race. Huge Beyer speed figure? Check. His 113 is highest in the field, also has a 103 that would be 4th in the field. Can handle traffic? Check. Was bumped around and had to make a wide move in the stretch in the Wood Memorial and still won going away.
My second choice will be the choice if it rains and the track gets sloppy, Friesan Fire. The colt won the Louisiana Derby in the slop and got a nice speed figure of 104 while doing it. Friesan Fire is trained by Larry Jones, whose horses have finished second in the last 2 Derbys (Hard Spun '07, Eight Belles '08). I look for Friesan Fire and I Want Revenge to be well placed coming out of the final turn and for it to be an all out drag race between the 2 coming to the wire.
From there it gets kinda sketchy, there is always a big odds bomber that hits the board in the Derby trifecta, so I am going to look for value and a horse that could improve off his last race. 2 horses fit the bill, Illinois Derby winner Musket Man (20-1) and Bluegrass winner General Quarters (20-1). Musket Man has been in the money in all of his career races, has improved every time out and has taken the same path to the Derby that '03 winner Funny Cide took. General Quarters won in Florida and at Keeneland, beating horses that are in this race on both occasions and got a nice speed figure of 102 in Florida on dirt.
A horse to watch the tote board on is Dunkirk. I think he is overvalued at 4-1, he has only run 3 career races. In fact, he is trying to become the first horse since Apollo in 1882 to win the Derby without racing as a 2 year old. If I am going to go against 127 years of history, I want at least 10-1. Dunkirk is a spectacularly bred horse for you bloodline players, he is a big beautiful gray and will probably get better as the year goes on so remember the name for the Saratoga meet this summer. He also boasts the second highest speed figure in the race at 108. I can't endorse him on top for a short price, but you can't leave him out of your trifectas and superfectas either, and if the odds start to creep up to the 8-1 or 10-1 range, throw a few bucks on him and see what happens.
There you have it, the Kentucky Derby 2009 ... drink an ice cold Mint Julep and cash some tickets.
From the guy who told you not to bet on Barbaro in 2006 ....
From the guy who told you not to bet on Street Sense in 2007 ....
From the guy who told you not to bet on Big Brown or Eight Belles in 2008 ....
It's the Kentucky Derby Handicapping Guide by Chris for 2009!!!
First of all, don't believe the hype about this year's field. There has been such a staggering amount of talented defections from the Derby trail due to injury, that this will be the first Derby in many, many years that will not include the winner of any of the major grade 1 stakes races for 2 year olds. Churchill Downs oddsmakers have installed 35% of the starters (7 out of 20) in the race as the longshot on the morning line at 50-1. The Derby scribes are using politically correct buzzwords like "competitive field" and "wide open race" ... I vehemently disagree. Amongst the top 4 or 5 horses it is competitive ... then there is a HUGE dropoff.
We will start with the most popular segment of this email, the horse you should not bet on no matter what. If I hold true to my recent Derby form, this is the horse you should run right to the window to bet on come Saturday. This year the horse is Pioneerof the Nile. The horse has beaten everybody in California, won more money than any other horse in the race and is coming in on a 4 stakes winning streak. What's not to like? Well, there are 2 things that throw up BIG red flags to me about this horse. The first is that he has never run on a conventional dirt surface, he has only run on the artificial surfaces of SoCal. The Derby is run on dirt. Secondly, his career best Beyer Speed Figure is 96. There hasn't been a Derby winner who hasn't carded at least one 100+ Beyer Speed Figure before the Derby since the figure was invented about 20 years ago. Colonel John was an undefeated artificial surface hero last year, and was nowhere on Derby Day ... expect the same from Pioneerof the Nile.
There are 2 more horses you shouldn't bet on no matter what, and they are the UAE shippers Desert Party and Regal Ransom. Horses shipped in from Dubai have never done well in the Derby, and no one expects either of these 2 to break that trend.
Now on to my picks ... this Derby is going to be weird. I have been studying the Form like scholars study the Dead Sea Scrolls and there is a glaring absence of pace in this race. Usually, a 7 furlong speedball gets the pace going early in the Derby. Not this year. In fact, it isn't obvious who will go to the lead. Every horse in the race is a route horse who likes to sit off the pace and close. All 20 horses can't run the same race, so my gut tells me that one of those 50-1 longshots is going to the front and try to steal it on the lead, the problem is none of them have enough talent to do it, they should be out of it by the quarter pole. So what horse should you look for? You should look for a horse that has big speed figures, has won races on dirt, has overcome traffic problems and doesn't mind getting dirt in his face early in the race. That horse is I Want Revenge. I know he is the morning line favorite at 3-1, so I am not exactly stepping out on a limb here, but I would still be on this horse even if some of the talented defectors showed up for the race. Huge Beyer speed figure? Check. His 113 is highest in the field, also has a 103 that would be 4th in the field. Can handle traffic? Check. Was bumped around and had to make a wide move in the stretch in the Wood Memorial and still won going away.
My second choice will be the choice if it rains and the track gets sloppy, Friesan Fire. The colt won the Louisiana Derby in the slop and got a nice speed figure of 104 while doing it. Friesan Fire is trained by Larry Jones, whose horses have finished second in the last 2 Derbys (Hard Spun '07, Eight Belles '08). I look for Friesan Fire and I Want Revenge to be well placed coming out of the final turn and for it to be an all out drag race between the 2 coming to the wire.
From there it gets kinda sketchy, there is always a big odds bomber that hits the board in the Derby trifecta, so I am going to look for value and a horse that could improve off his last race. 2 horses fit the bill, Illinois Derby winner Musket Man (20-1) and Bluegrass winner General Quarters (20-1). Musket Man has been in the money in all of his career races, has improved every time out and has taken the same path to the Derby that '03 winner Funny Cide took. General Quarters won in Florida and at Keeneland, beating horses that are in this race on both occasions and got a nice speed figure of 102 in Florida on dirt.
A horse to watch the tote board on is Dunkirk. I think he is overvalued at 4-1, he has only run 3 career races. In fact, he is trying to become the first horse since Apollo in 1882 to win the Derby without racing as a 2 year old. If I am going to go against 127 years of history, I want at least 10-1. Dunkirk is a spectacularly bred horse for you bloodline players, he is a big beautiful gray and will probably get better as the year goes on so remember the name for the Saratoga meet this summer. He also boasts the second highest speed figure in the race at 108. I can't endorse him on top for a short price, but you can't leave him out of your trifectas and superfectas either, and if the odds start to creep up to the 8-1 or 10-1 range, throw a few bucks on him and see what happens.
There you have it, the Kentucky Derby 2009 ... drink an ice cold Mint Julep and cash some tickets.
