It’s tough. Procks have a pretty comfortable 3.81 tune up in good conditions, and there is more left in it. When you can run 3.81 with consistency, you can back it off and run say 3.84 pretty safe. The other guys (Other than Jack) are having to step out of their comfort zone just to try and run .84. Plus if both drivers stage shallow, Austin is going to get you .015-.025 on the tree on average, so now you need to run .82 to beat his .84.
Case in Point, Paul Lee rolled it in .020-ish and still left 2nd by .024. He would have needed a 3.80 to win. And that’s 3.80 rolled in .020, so a shallow 3.78 (Quickest run in history) to win.
Hats off to Paul Lee and the team though. His .83 was probably an .81 in the semis. When you get multiple shots at a great track, and make the trip every time you can really learn something. They swung for it, and it stuck.