vegasnitro
Nitro Member
- Joined
- Jul 10, 2006
- Messages
- 4,752
- Age
- 50
- Location
- Burlington KY or Las Vegas NV
It’s back!
From the guy who told you not to bet on Barbaro no matter what in 2006.
From the guy who told you not to bet on Street Sense no matter what in 2007.
It’s the complete idiot’s guide to handicapping the Kentucky Derby for 2008.
This year we have 2 horses you should NOT bet on no matter what. The first horse you should not bet on no matter what is the favorite, Big Brown. He drew the far outside post, gate 20. Only 1 horse in the 134 year history of the Derby has won from the 20 spot, and that occurred before the starting gate was invented back in the 1920s. He likes to run from the front, and the Derby is the 1 race that is impossible to go gate to wire, that stretch run at Churchill Downs is VERY LONG. Big Brown is going to have to make a much longer trip than horses inside of him if he is to win. Big Brown only has 3 career starts, and no horse since Regret 90+ years ago has won the Derby on so few starts. Lastly, he has not run since the Florida Derby, and if you throw out Barbaro, no horse has won the Derby in over 100 years on 5 weeks rest.
The second horse you should not bet on no matter what is the filly is Eight Belles. She is going to get some hype and some play, particularly since filly Rags to Riches won the Belmont last year. I will dispel the myth for you right now, Eight Belles is no where near the horse Rags to Riches is. Eight Belles would not even be the favorite if she was running with the rest of the fillies in the Kentucky Oaks on Friday, as Proud Spell has that field well covered. Only 3 fillies have ever won the Derby, and no filly that has never raced against the boys has ever won. This will be Eight Belles first run with the boys, and in the biggest race of the year? Save your money.
So who should you put your money on?
I like Pyro on top. He is the best athlete in the race. He can come from way back, he can rate the pace, he can run in the slop if it rains, he can run inside or outside, he doesn’t mind dirt in his face and he has run many big races against tough competition. He is ready to fire, and he is the third choice in the 6-1 or 7-1 range, so you are going to get a price.
Next up is Colonel John. The California shipper has finished first or second in all 6 starts. The only question mark is this will be his first race on dirt, he has only run on the California synthetic tracks. The Cal horses that have shipped east onto dirt have done very well, and this horse is remarkably consistent. Don’t leave this horse out of any exacta/trifecta/superfecta wagering. The only downside is he is the second choice at 4-1, so you are not going to fetch much of a price.
Next up is Z Fortune. Horse is constantly improving and is one of the few that has put up a triple digit Beyer speed figure. Has run second to Pyro, and Pyro had to run him down in an electrifying performance. He has turned in some very nice works at Churchill last week and appears to be fit and ready. Good news is he should be a HUGE price 15-1 or more.
From here the picture gets muddied. You can make a case for Gayego (another California polytrack shipper, bad post position though), Monba (horse for the course? Has won at Churchill before), Cool Coal Man (got the best of now-injured War Pass, has won at Churchill before), Court Vision (always seems to be in the money, but hasn’t won in a while), Smooth Air (same as Court Vision), and Adriano (has never beat anybody of note but jockey Edgar Prado passed on other horses to ride him). Any of these horses should be big prices, 12-1 or higher.
There is a lot of value in this year’s Derby, expect to see another $1,000 trifecta and $10,000 superfecta on Saturday, so play plenty of exotics, drink a mint julep or two and have fun!
From the guy who told you not to bet on Barbaro no matter what in 2006.
From the guy who told you not to bet on Street Sense no matter what in 2007.
It’s the complete idiot’s guide to handicapping the Kentucky Derby for 2008.
This year we have 2 horses you should NOT bet on no matter what. The first horse you should not bet on no matter what is the favorite, Big Brown. He drew the far outside post, gate 20. Only 1 horse in the 134 year history of the Derby has won from the 20 spot, and that occurred before the starting gate was invented back in the 1920s. He likes to run from the front, and the Derby is the 1 race that is impossible to go gate to wire, that stretch run at Churchill Downs is VERY LONG. Big Brown is going to have to make a much longer trip than horses inside of him if he is to win. Big Brown only has 3 career starts, and no horse since Regret 90+ years ago has won the Derby on so few starts. Lastly, he has not run since the Florida Derby, and if you throw out Barbaro, no horse has won the Derby in over 100 years on 5 weeks rest.
The second horse you should not bet on no matter what is the filly is Eight Belles. She is going to get some hype and some play, particularly since filly Rags to Riches won the Belmont last year. I will dispel the myth for you right now, Eight Belles is no where near the horse Rags to Riches is. Eight Belles would not even be the favorite if she was running with the rest of the fillies in the Kentucky Oaks on Friday, as Proud Spell has that field well covered. Only 3 fillies have ever won the Derby, and no filly that has never raced against the boys has ever won. This will be Eight Belles first run with the boys, and in the biggest race of the year? Save your money.
So who should you put your money on?
I like Pyro on top. He is the best athlete in the race. He can come from way back, he can rate the pace, he can run in the slop if it rains, he can run inside or outside, he doesn’t mind dirt in his face and he has run many big races against tough competition. He is ready to fire, and he is the third choice in the 6-1 or 7-1 range, so you are going to get a price.
Next up is Colonel John. The California shipper has finished first or second in all 6 starts. The only question mark is this will be his first race on dirt, he has only run on the California synthetic tracks. The Cal horses that have shipped east onto dirt have done very well, and this horse is remarkably consistent. Don’t leave this horse out of any exacta/trifecta/superfecta wagering. The only downside is he is the second choice at 4-1, so you are not going to fetch much of a price.
Next up is Z Fortune. Horse is constantly improving and is one of the few that has put up a triple digit Beyer speed figure. Has run second to Pyro, and Pyro had to run him down in an electrifying performance. He has turned in some very nice works at Churchill last week and appears to be fit and ready. Good news is he should be a HUGE price 15-1 or more.
From here the picture gets muddied. You can make a case for Gayego (another California polytrack shipper, bad post position though), Monba (horse for the course? Has won at Churchill before), Cool Coal Man (got the best of now-injured War Pass, has won at Churchill before), Court Vision (always seems to be in the money, but hasn’t won in a while), Smooth Air (same as Court Vision), and Adriano (has never beat anybody of note but jockey Edgar Prado passed on other horses to ride him). Any of these horses should be big prices, 12-1 or higher.
There is a lot of value in this year’s Derby, expect to see another $1,000 trifecta and $10,000 superfecta on Saturday, so play plenty of exotics, drink a mint julep or two and have fun!
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