See, I told you so…. (Housing Market and Iraq) (1 Viewer)

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HEMI6point1

Nitro Member
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Subject 1: The housing market

What most people were saying/thinking: Great, I can move into this house and move out 3 years later and make double profit!

What I said to just a couple of years ago: Over time, when the “real estate craze” was picking up there were houses I personally would refuse to pay over $250K for going for $400K, then $500K, then $750K. Condos which are basically “glorified apartments” which seemed overpriced already at $100K ballooned to as much as $300K or more. Soon, people are going to get smart and refuse to pay what’s being asked for these ridiculously overpriced homes. Afterwards, people will get greedy and demand an even lower price for the homes, forcing home owners to sell at a loss.

What a typical response was: You know nothing about the housing market so shut up! And even more grating was “you’re just jealous that other families can actually afford a house!” (Yes, that was actually said to me. :mad: )

And now….

Looks like I wasn’t too off-base. Houses which were once pricey are now being reduced in price by $50K to $100K chunks, in order to look like a “bargain,” but they still don’t sell. Why? Just like I predicted: people got smart, then greedy. However, many times these price slashes mean the home owner has to sell at a loss. Rather than doing that, many home owners would rather let the house go into foreclosure and ruin their credit. That’s why the housing market is in the toilet right now, rather than taking a loss (it’s still something) people would rather let their credit take a dump and just “walk away” and get nothing. And to make matters worse, even the foreclosed properties are still overpriced, IMO.

Subject 2: Iraq

What people were saying/thinking: We’ll go into Iraq and the people will welcome us with flowers and boxes of chocolates!

What I said when the war started: These people are obviously clueless about Arab countries and Arabs in general. When 9/11 hit, a man with a video camera videotaped a bunch of Arab children celebrating…. In the streets of Iraq. After airing only once on the main news networks, the video was pulled, never to be seen again. And these are the same people the many of my fellow Americans thought would be welcoming us with flowers and chocolate.

The biggest issue is that arabs have the damn Kuran stuck in their heads. I know Islam is supposed to be “the religion of peace” but it’s actually far from it. Arabs believe in solving problems by using bombs and quoting Allah, and will be your friend one day then stab you in the back the next, all in the name of Allah. Many times they will go into Israel and blow themselves up, killing innocent people. Oh and these are the people that believe it’s still in fashion to do “honor killings.” The two most infamous ones? Several years ago, an Arab girl living in America for almost all her life visited Iraq to see her family there. Upon seeing her, they took a secret vote, and had her brother beat her to death for “shaming her family.” Her crime? Wearing a skirt a couple of inches above the knee. More recently, a young sunni girl was stoned to death for…. dating a man of a different religion. Yet many arabs feel “this is their culture” and actually think it’s superior to the US. Which is why we are having so much trouble over there: do you really think that those people are going to like what we’re about? Hell no! And it’s not just Iraq, ANY arab country you would have the same problems in!

What the responses were: You’re just being an ignorant racist!

And now….

First off, ignorance is thinking arabs are a race when they’re actually caucasian. Secondly, 3,500+ American soldiers dead. Iraqi people (on video) wishing Saddam was still in power. Recently, an Iraqi soldier was traveling with 3 American troops. The Iraqi, waiting for them to stop, took his rifle and shot and killed the 3 American soldiers. His answer? Allah told him he needed to do it. And as far as the republicans saying “there is a huge terror presence in Iraq,” well there has only been a “huge terror presence” since we invaded! Why? Saddam may be been an a-hole, but he would not stand for ANY other entity entering his country. When he was pushed out of the way, the floodgates opened so to speak and terrorist were no longer afraid to enter Iraq and crowd the place. And there IS a civil war going on there, pulling out would make no difference, Sunnis and Shiites have been fighting for the last 1000 years they’ll be fighting for the next 1000 more!

And by the way, when the great blackout of 2003 happened, and when the bridge in Minnesota collapsed, it entered many people’s minds that it might have been the result of arab terrorism.
 
Disagree, the housing market just like any other investment will have its high points and lows. 08 would be a very good time to buy real estate. Of couse you could do like I've done in the past and bought gold and a bunch of it.:D
 
As for the real estate market, I am surprised what some houses were going for in California, and they weren't even new ones. What some people were paying $1 million for in California you could find in Florida not worth more than $200,000...or I wouldn't pay more than that.
 
I'm waiting to pounce on a house.
It would be my first, and by myself.

Going to wait just a tad longer.

The prices, to me, are still way inflated.
I hope I am not doomed to a shoebox.
Out here in CA, they try to stuff as many shoeboxes into as small a lot as possible.

Would hate to have to leave the state.
 
Paul, very ggod move. They were inflated before and always will be. I paid $600,000 for my current house and even in todays junk market I'll still make money. Buy, you do fine. It might be small but its a start and you can sell in a few years and upgrade to something bigger.
 
I'm waiting to pounce on a house.
It would be my first, and by myself.

Going to wait just a tad longer.

The prices, to me, are still way inflated.
I hope I am not doomed to a shoebox.
Out here in CA, they try to stuff as many shoeboxes into as small a lot as possible.

Would hate to have to leave the state.
I'd move in for the kill now. In two weekends my daughter in Rancho Cucamonga will move from a 1200 sq. ft. starter home up into the Red Hills Country Club into 2500 sq. ft. for just over $60K difference. This market is depressed and if you have any sense of historical reasoning, you won't wait very long. I've been selling real estate for over 30 years and I've never seen a better time to strike in Southern California. Get into a mortgage broker you trust, get pre-qualified and find a full-time real estate professional to start combing everything for you. My daughter and her husband found a repo that has been vacant for almost two years while dropping the price along the way until they picked it up for about 1/2 it's 2005 value. Her purchase contract just edged out two others after two years of silence. Even if prices do drop another percent or five, I doubt you will ever be sorry for getting today's interest rate and today's market prices.
These are the times that leave people saying "I could've, should've, would've." Don't pass this opportunity and be one of them.
 
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This couple I know had their Dream house built about 18 months ago for $189,000 which is cheap even for Albuq. They are literally House Poor paying off a $1,800 Mortgage plus utilities and car payments. But the Worst thing about it all is; their brand new Neighborhood turned into a Gang haven inside of a year! Their home and vehicles have already been broken into, and as of now their home isn't worth what they owe on it right now. :rolleyes:
 
Maybe it's just me, but I would NEVER buy a repo'ed house. Maybe it's just my conscience, but to me that's taking advantage of someone else's misfortune.
Samuel,
You never cease to amaze me. This particular home was given back to the bank in lieu of foreclosure and could have been better described as "bank owned" rather than a repo but, for the sake of semantics, I used the term. Did you think the bank, in spite of their fiduciary responsibility to it's investors, should just forgive the loan when the borrower failed to make his payments so no one was taken advantage of? There are thousands of ways people take advantage of others' misfortunes but purchasing a bank owned property is not one. All the parties to that transaction knew exactly what they promised to do in order to avoid the consequences for failure to perform before they ever entered into the transaction in the first place. Every home loan borrower faces the same dilemma when executing loan documents. It's just a house after the foreclosure process has run it's course-not opportunism. My daughter and her husband are wise buyers and I'd rather you not call them something less in a public forum.
 
Samuel,
You never cease to amaze me. This particular home was given back to the bank in lieu of foreclosure and could have been better described as "bank owned" rather than a repo but, for the sake of semantics, I used the term. Did you think the bank, in spite of their fiduciary responsibility to it's investors, should just forgive the loan when the borrower failed to make his payments so no one was taken advantage of? There are thousands of ways people take advantage of others' misfortunes but purchasing a bank owned property is not one. All the parties to that transaction knew exactly what they promised to do in order to avoid the consequences for failure to perform before they ever entered into the transaction in the first place. Every home loan borrower faces the same dilemma when executing loan documents. It's just a house after the foreclosure process has run it's course-not opportunism. My daughter and her husband are wise buyers and I'd rather you not call them something less in a public forum.

Bobby, not calling your daughter "anything less," sorry if you feel that way it was not meant at all to be a slam. You're right, it's just a house.
 
you know... I may live in the flat middle of not much... BUT... there is an airport here... Southwest, Continental and American fly in & out several times a day. My home, 1583 sq ft in brick, on 2 acres, small horse barn, BIG backyard, nice front yard, trees, well, short drive to work (less than 20 minutes, highway & interstate all the way) If I feel like driving, its a few hours to my parents or friends in either direction. And what have I paid? Much less than what it's worth and at a great rate of interest. So the workshop I didn't mention needs a little work. Everything else is great and I can afford to take trips, vacations buy my toy (46 chevy pickup) and still put a little money away for stuff.

I feel bad for people that have mortgages that just amaze me, but you pay for where you live. Sometimes it's too much. One thing is for sure, while prices may go down, they will go up again because the population will never be what it was in the 60's or 70's or even the 80's and people will always need a place to live. Even if it isn't their own.
 
Reoublicans use to stand for small government, strong defense, reduced entitlement spending, low taxes, States' rights, personal liberties, Constitutionalism, protection of our culture, enforcement of our laws, separation of Church and State but the acknowledgement of religion's importance in the foundation of our country, and moral integrity.

With the rare exception, the Republicans of today have shown themselves to be nothing more than Democrats of a different name. The closest the Repubicans have come to be Conservatives in recent years is through their appointment of what appear to be Constitutional judges.

Of course the Democrats of today resemble nothing of the party from 50 years ago. They are beholden to the most radical of left-wing groups/organizations and represent more the ideals of socialism than democracy
 
Maybe it's just me, but I would NEVER buy a repo'ed house. Maybe it's just my conscience, but to me that's taking advantage of someone else's misfortune.

What does conscience have to do with buying a reposessed house? if you can't afford it then you can't live in it. People got into these houses on an ARM at a great rate...Now thier ARMs are going up and they can't afford the payment, Now lets see Samuel, you said people are greedy and are foreclosing and ruining thier credit rather than sell at a loss... IF YOU had bought a home for say 150,000 at 4.3% interest, no money down, move in for less than 1,000. Payments around 700.00-800.00 a month Then say suppose three years later your ARM gets readjusted and your payments shoot up, way up, about 500.00-600.00 a -month. Meanwhile a few million others experiance this same mis-fourtune and wham the housing market starts to skid. Your 150,000 house is now worth 95,000 on a good day, Thats 55,000 loss, your'e telling us you'll sell for 95,000 and still make a, lets say 550.00 payment to the bank? (to pay the 55,000, You still owe, you know...150,000 minus 95,000 equals 55,000) and then go throw away hard earned money on rent which will put you up where you were while you were in your House? or are you going to move out and let it go????? I've bought and sold a few homes in my life, and have NEVER gotten into an ARM, because they were'nt for Me, but a-lot of banks took advantage of a lot of people a few years ago and now they are paying (or not) for it. Now is a great time to Buy if you can afford it and it is called being SMART, I don't care if they couldn't afford them. One should'nt bite off more than one can chew.
 
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I have a 5 year Arm with my house and the only reason is that my company has been moving me every 3 years. The ARM saved me a hundred dollars a month. I can not complain about the housing market, I bought my first house when I was 22 for $90k and I sold it less then 2 years later for $175k, which was the easiest money I have ever made. I made a similar % on the last house I sold 3 years ago. When I go to sell my house here in Illinois I doubt I will make anything close to what I made in the Northeast. It looks like I will only make about 7% in the last 3 years. I recently have told my company that I am done moving because they were pressing me to move to the LA area. I met with a real estate rep from the region and she told me that I would risk losing 10% in the first year of owning a house in the region and then she told me that I would be paying 3x the value of my house here. There was no way I was going to risk losing $100k of my equity. Real estate is like any investment, there is risk associated with it and you have to evaluate the risk before making an investment decision.
 
Bought my current home 3 yrs ago, small 1400 sq ft on 6 acres, paid cash.
6 months later built a 3000 sq ft shop for the race program and to run my business out of.
Borrowed 85k and did most of the work. put it on a 5yr ARM
I was making accelerated payments (never much cared to have a mortgage),
but recently the extra money that was going on the mortage is going into CD's
that are earning about .3% more than I pay on the loan.
And in 2-1/2 years when the ARM comes up, the CD's are there to pay it off.
 
You can't make blanket statements about the housing market; every location is different. If you need more housing in most places, say Arkansas, you simply move a few miles out of town and buy up 20 or 100 acres and build a housing tract. In Southern California, it is a different story: you can drive for 2 hours (8 if there is an accident on the freeway) and never see more than a half acre of open land. The land is full and developments have to keep moving farther out. This will cause the price of housing to always be much higher than other places in the country.

The last housing slump we had here (So. CA) was in the early '90s and I saw the same things, heard the same stories and predictions as I'm hearing now. The housing market or any market for that matter will have highs and lows. The housing market is low now and if you have the funds it is a good time to buy. If your house is upside down it won't be in 1-3 years. If you speculate (short term) in the real estate market or any market you take a chance, but if you invest (long term) you will come out ahead.

If you speculated in the stock market with the hopes of a big profit in 18 months and made your purchase on 9-10-01, you lost money. If you invested in the stock market on the same day and still hold those investments, you would be ahead today. For example, my parents bought a new home in 1960 for 20k. In 1991 it was valued at 250k and in 1993 it was 200k. In 2006 it was 750k and today it is about 550k-600k. If you do the math, that home lost +/-17% of its value between 2006 and now, but it lost +/-20% of its value between 1991 and 1993. So ask yourself, does anyone remember the housing crash of 1992? The speculator does but the investor doesn't.
 
Of course I own my home but I prefer to invest in Arizona land above anything else. On the other hand, that's all I have sold for the past 30+ years and I can claim a bit of knowledge for such. I'll match our returns, when figured long term, against any other market, stock or real estate in the world.

Jim is dead on referring to the difference between speculators and investors.
 
Those words are very true, the latest trend seems to be make a fast buck, some fueled by the TV shows but unless you can afford it, for the long term, then don't buy it, simple. I've never lost money on realestate for the simple reason I don't buy it to get rich, I invest in it for the future.
 
JIm, so true. When I moved to the Murrieta Valley in 75 the 15 freeway was still a dream.
 
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