Can Someone help me with countdown math? (1 Viewer)

[Rat]

Ok Del Worsham has a 600 point lead over # 11 and there are only 596 points left on the table until the countdown begins. It's mathematically correct that he clinches. How did Neff clinch when, although it is highly unlikely, Johnny Gray in the 11th spot could win the next 4, earn all the points and take 2nd place only after neff takes the 40 points for going to each race and making a pass. He is not mathematically clinched yet?

How did massey? It very unlikely but he could still be bumped out of the top ten if everyone did great behind him. The clinching must not only work on math. How does NHRA determine this when the teams have not shutout outside the top ten teams?

 

[mick]

it's a complicated algorithm based on movements of the sun and moon.
low tide in sonoma this week, an extra advantage for those outside the top 10.

 

[none]

Look at it like this, if Gray wins the next four to pass Mike and the #10 (Wilkerson) would also have to win the next four, to pass him, Tasca (#9) would have to win three of them, that can't happen, so he has clinched. He didn't clinch the top spot, but there are not enough points on the table for 10 guys to pass him.

Make sense?

Alan

 

[Rat]

Look at it like this, if Gray wins the next four to pass Mike and the #10 (Wilkerson) would also have to win the next four, to pass him, Tasca (#9) would have to win three of them, that can't happen, so he has clinched. He didn't clinch the top spot, but there are not enough points on the table for 10 guys to pass him.

Make sense?

Alan

Thanks, it's a little clearer

 

[Bob]

Since oil downs can take points away, clinching isn't always clinching.

 

[.]

 

[my friends call me Zappy]

But what about the 10 point subtraction for oil-downs???

 

[JB3]

But what about the 10 point subtraction for oil-downs???

Seriously ??? There are 4 races left. Neff clinched 1 of 10 spots, not necessarily the top spot. While it is possible (remotely) for someone to knock Neff out of the #1 spot, 10 other drivers (including the current #11) cannot each win 4 races and earn enough points to knock him completely out of the Countdown. Just like Alan said earlier. At best there can only be 4 different winners at the last 4 races. I don't care if Neff oils the track 10 times until the Countdown.

Theoretically, let's assume no DNQ's for Hight or Neff and exclude bonus points. In order just to slip to #2, Neff would have to go out in the 1st round at the remaining events and Robert would have to win 3 of the last 4 to overcome his current 192 point deficit. How likely is that? So if it is that tough to get from #2 to #1 at this late stage, how can anyone realistically think #11 or #10 has the chance to slide up into one of the top 2 spots. For every round deeper that Neff goes it really makes it that much more difficult and downright impossible.

Stats never take reality into consideration. Reality is that points will be scattered over a bunch of drivers which leaves Neff safely in the Countdown. Massey too.

 

[none]

There was a situation a couple of years back, and I don't remember the specifics but what happened was this, just making up names

After final qualifying, Bob announced that "Fred has clinched his spot in the countdown!"

One of the press guys at the time came up to the tower at record pace and told Bob he was wrong, the spot couldn't be clinched until the race was run. He explained to Bob that Fred was 9th, and could lose first round. If that happened and Sam went to the final, he would pass Fred and put him in 10th. Then if George beat Sam in the final to win the race, he would pass Fred and Fred would be out. As unlikely as it was, you couldn't declare Fred had clinched until either Sam or George was eliminated short of their goal.

Bob said there was no way that those two would make it to the final, and that George would win, so Fred had clinched. The press guy was getting a bit peeved with Bob and told him again that as unlikely as it was, it was possible and therefore you couldn't make the claim. Bob told him it wasn't going to happen. The guys blood pressure was getting up there.

Bob then showed the guy a ladder that showed if they both won, George and Sam would race second round, making it impossible for them to race in the final, so Fred had indeed clinched. The guy was even more upset having been proven wrong, because he didn't think to look at the ladder, and Bob thinks of every angle.

It was pretty funny,

Alan

 

[Rat]

You know Alan that is why i'm sure I am not the only person who gets a little perplexed every countdown clinching time. On paper, yes, points are points and it looks like no one can really clinch early, but when you read between the lines you can see how it's impossible for everyone to all earn the same amount of points. Thanks for clearin it up.